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THE LIBRA LETTER 2026
26 SEP 2026
© Malvin Artley
“Unless the concept of peace based on law gathers behind it the force and zeal of a religion, it can hardly hope to succeed.”[1]
“The rational mind is a servant; but the intuitive mind is a precious gift. Our world, however, honours the servant – but forgets [ignores] the gift.”[2]
Topics (linked to paragraphs):
Libra
The full moon
Venus as Lucifer
The Libra new moon
Current events
The UNGA
Iran update
Economies out of gas
The diesel ban
Bloody idiots
Market manipulation
The bell tolls
Greetings Everyone!
Well, it had to happen sooner or later. Tensions have been rising between the various clans since the clashes last year. The conflict between them produced a result of nobody really accepted. Everyone’s true colors had been shown in that previous conflict. The local clan had become black with thoughts of vengeance. It was clear there had to be another reckoning. Strategies had been planned carefully. Battle lines were drawn. The troops had trained hard and had learned their tactics well. And this past weekend it finally exploded – it was war in Rovereto. Our peaceful city had become a battle zone. The trumpets were sounding, the war drums pounding. The march to war was unavoidable. It was to be blood. The local communities met on the battlefield for the final showdown, fierce in their determination that this time the victors of the past round would be vanquished. Who would win? Who would claim the throne? There were many obstacles in the way at the start. But soon it became clear who would reign supreme!
September is normally a festive month here in our fair city. Outdoor activities are the norm. The heat of the summer is finally gone. The leaves begin to litter the ground along with the horse chestnuts. And the air changes along with the quality of the light of the day. Autumn had arrived. We used to have a strongman run here up until just before the pandemic. It was big doin’s, as we say in the American South. People would come from out-of-state even to participate in the event. Those people were usually professional runners and as far as I know there was never a local winner of those events. From memory it was a marathon run comprising about 35 km. Events like that are not my cup of cappuccino, but it is fun to get out and observe. We have events of all sorts here in the city in the autumn. Ah, but what about the war, you might be asking?
Our little conflict here this past weekend was initially formed at the end of the pandemic, as a release from that other hostility – you know, the one where some of the world governments were attempting to see how easy it would be to impose martial law and corral people into submission. I think we all learned a lot from that little episode. And then come to find out that by and large the governments were having us on and testing a new technology on an unsuspecting populace. Call it conspiracy if you like, but the evidence for such is overwhelming if anyone cares actually read and think. But coming back to our local war, it was actually an amateur athletic competition, comprised of a series of events and contests involving all the local communities in the region.
Unlike the FIFA championship matches, there was no big money involved here, no fixing of events, no cheating. It was all an intraregional coming together in the spirit of fun. Festivities started with local marching band – you know, trumpets sounding, drums beating – with the actual events beginning with an obstacle course. Each team was comprised of three men and three women, all volunteers, all shapes and sizes. And each team had their own color of t-shirt. Our fair city was represented in black. We lost last year. And by the way, it was another local community who won the overall competition this year. Better luck next time, Rovereto. It was a good turnout, too. The bars and restaurants here in the city did well and everything went off without a hitch. We walked to the races from here at the house. The dogs remained at home. The only ugliness at the events came in the form of a couple of women who had air horns, the ones you hear at big sporting events. They would blast those things at the start of every race and toward the finish. I felt like telling one of those women what she could do with her air horn, but in the spirit of the events we decided to find another observation post – far away. I hope they ban those things at the next round. We in Rovereto are already planning our revenge for next year, though. You can count on a leaner, meaner team.
The end of September inaugurates the autumn season of the northern hemisphere, with the solar ingress into Libra setting the tone for the quarter. Unfortunately, what I described at the starting paragraph of this letter has more serious overtones in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Libra is a sign normally associated with dialogue and diplomacy. But it is also very often indicated in conflicts. In the natural zodiac Libra represents open enemies, as well as contracts, marriages and legal matters. However, in terms of resolution of conflicts the results rarely turn out in the way the major forces involved would like. But some way of living alongside hostility is normally achieved, either through victory or through realizing that furtherance of any conflict is not anybody’s interest. Choices have to be made. Realities have to be faced. Compromises have to be embraced. With these points in mind we turn to our present theme for this letter, the sign Libra, the Balance. And in terms of a human life Libra represents the balancing of forces within one’s nature.
Libra: Libra in an evolutionary context proceeds along three lines and stages: Integration – Establishing a new and more suitable spiritual rhythm to one’s life – Choice. These stages are characterized in the three ruling planets for this sign – Venus, Uranus and Saturn – from the orthodox to the most sublime, respectively. Libra rules the natural seventh house of the zodiac and as such governs the law (litigation), sex (the marital relationship, which is also a contract) and money, which always involves a contract in some manner or another. As such, Libra can rule either conflict or the resolution of conflict. The seventh house is also known as the house of open enemies. This is the Venus phase or rulership of the sign. It has been said that Venus can be one of the most extreme of the signs of the zodiac, precisely because it stands as a mediator between warring forces, becoming extreme when it leans to one side or another. This is often in evidence in the early life of Libran type, Sun or Ascendant. Once experience intervenes in the life of a Libran type then the more balanced and moderating side of the Venus rulership prevails. Then Libra represents the peacemaker, the adjudicator between forces. The esoteric motto of Libra is, “I choose the way which lies between the two great lines of force.” The two great lines of force with respect to an individual are of course the soul force and the personality.
Nations, like people have their soul and personality forces. At present we seem to be seeing a lot of personality projected through personalities in the Western world. The soul always tends toward union whereas the personality will tend to see others rather than partners. If one begins to study international affairs it is clear to see which nations are functioning more as personalities than as souls. That was shown recently with a few examples at the UN General Assembly debates, which will be covered below.
The three rulers of the sign Libra – Venus, Uranus and Saturn – also apply to evolution as it applies to the three levels of the personality. The base expression of Libra is most often seen in attention to physical appearance, adornment, beauty and so on. That is not necessarily bad, but when done to the point of obsession that blocks the soul light. In other words the attention is directed outwards instead of toward the soul. The same applies to sexuality and to interpersonal relations. Change comes to the Libran type when the astral body comes under scrutiny. The astral body is the battleground for the personality of the Libran type. It breeds indecision, the bane of every Libran. Are choices made on the basis of desire, necessity or what is best for one’s spiritual development? Uranus invariably imposes a new rhythm on the astral body. Desire must be subordinated to the necessities of life. And with the necessities of life we enter the realm of Saturn, representing karma and choice. So, within the personality itself we have the first battleground, and the choice must be made as to whether or not to succumb to one’s desires and live somewhat a life of license, or to live as a responsible human being.
When one begins to see desire as a dead-end then the true function of Uranus with Libra begins its real work. In the personality life the motto for the Libran is “Let choice be made.” And to the lesser evolved Libran type some choices can become a real agony. But conflict after a while usually leads to exhaustion and to a reassessment of values. The outer life becomes less important. A new rhythm is imposed on the entire personality and the cares of the world begin to fade in significance. Then the Libran experience becomes one of interlude, where strident forces are set aside and a real pondering on the meaning of one’s life takes place. This represents a true and important opportunity, because in the place between warring forces the voice of the soul begins to impress itself on the personality. Then the true work of Saturn begins with the Libran type and conscious choices can be made about one’s life direction. When such a phase is reached, the Libran will begin to assess every event according to whether or not it brings resolution or furtherance of turmoil.
What we are left with after any event is first, a memory, alongside an emotional reaction and then attendant thoughts regarding the event and the emotions the event evinces. These are modifications of the mind, as would be described in the Yoga Sutras of Patanjali.[3] These thoughts and reactions are based in our own experience and often in our own past traumas. They are things, and are not real, though w identify with them. The Libra experience teaches is to live in the clear space between these. These modifications of the mind are personal, of our personality. They are not that to which we aspire, which is the bliss of union with the soul. The aim in Libra is to find the peaceful middle point of equipoise between the Light of the soul and the aspirations of the personality. This is a very important phase in the meditative process. It also marks an important phase of one’s soul path, wherein a certain point in one’s wider service (soul path) has been reached and a new rhythm or ‘course correction’ is in order. We live in such an interlude today, between the warring forces around us and the peace and bliss we know as souls. And now we must choose – do we stay in turmoil at what we see around us, or do we choose to stay in our center? With these points in mind we move on the consider the lunations and the current events.
The full moon takes place on the 26th of September at 16:49 UTC (02:49 AEST on the 27th). The full moon follows very closely on the Libra ingress chart for the quarter. The dynamics of the full moon are covered in that blog post. So there is no need to cover old ground here. There are a few points to add, however. There is particular dwarf planet that is active in the chart and which is squared by Mars. This particular dwarf planet is Eris, in whose mythology she was said to accompany Mars on the battlefield and to revel in the bloodshed. In astrology Eris is typically associated with discord, with the most prevalent mythological associations being with the Golden Apple bearing the inscription, “To the fairest”, which to make a long story short eventuated in the destruction of Troy. In the case of this chart Mars is the midpoint of Mercury and Pluto, signifying blackmail. The square to Eris thereby signifies the possibility or even probability that kompromat may be employed in an effort to pull certain parties into sharp escalations in existing conflicts.
Eris is currently in the constellation of Cetus, which these days we like to call The Whale. But the mythology of that constellation is not the benign influence to which we normally attribute it. Cetus was a giant sea monster that was sent to terrorize the coast of Aethiopia, which if you know your ancient geography basically lined the African coast of the Red Sea, including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Mercury is opposite Eris in the full moon chart pointing to heightened rhetoric and threatening posturing. Europeans in particular are worried about the closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait because the bulk of their shipping from Asia comes through that strait which opens into the Red Sea, through to the Suez. If the war picks up again and Yemen in particular is attacked by Western powers the Yemenis have said that they will close the strait. That shuts off not only shipments of fuel but also all kinds of goods.
Aside from these warnings, the chart features a Grand Trine with the Sun at one of the points and the Moon at the opposite point conjunct Neptune. The Moon with Neptune can point to deceptive behavior, gaslighting and the like, as well as an opening to visionary experiences. People of vision need to step forward. This is a revolutionary triangle, composed of the Sun, Uranus and Pluto. The full moon axis forms one of the release points for the Grand Trine, meaning the potential for realizing the grace contained in that trine finds a strong outlet for realizations and ultimately manifestations. Uranus also provides a release point, being at the midpoint of Mars and Saturn. If the reader has been following my separate blog posts then you know that the Mars/Saturn midpoint also points toward warlike behavior. But that midpoint also can carry another meaning, in that it can indicate extraordinary powers of resistance. The aggressor nations in these conflicts have been Western in general. If there is an escalation of tensions in West Asia then this chart favors The Resistance axis.
For individuals this full moon presents a doorway into higher perception. It can produce revolutionary thought and action. If this was also an eclipse, which it is not, it would produce extraordinary results. Even then, for people who are open and can stay calm in the middle of crises great clarity may dawn on many issues because this planetary configuration points toward expanded awareness, especially if one can access buddhic levels, which means the higher Self. Since we are on the theme of Libra in this letter, there is another point worth mentioning.
Venus as Lucifer: This topic in no way refers to Satan or evil, but instead to an unfortunate mistranslation and conflation of terms due to poor scholarship. On the 24th of this month at 04:43 UTC there is the exact inferior conjunction of Venus with the Sun in Venus’ retrograde phase. This is the so-called ‘Venus kiss’ because Venus is always closest to the Earth at its inferior conjunction with the Sun. This conjunction should not be confused with a Venus transit, which is when the conjunction can be seen on the face of the sun. We will not see another one of those until 2117. After the inferior conjunction Venus becomes ‘Lucifer, the Bright Morning Star’. In its original translation, ‘Lucifer’ simply means ‘light-bearer’, because Venus in that phase presages the dawn. It will be of interest to see what light dawns upon humanity between the 24th of this month until August of next year. For those readers who wish to meditate at the changes of Venus’ transits and phases, it makes its direct station on the 14th of next month at 00:28 UTC. Venus makes its inferior conjunction in forward motion on 12 Aug 2027 at 01:43 UTC, after which it becomes an evening star, its Hesperus phase, visible at the horizon just after sunset.
The inferior conjunction of Venus on the 24th takes place on the first degree of Scorpio, the Sabian symbol for which reads as follows:
This symbol goes quite well with the idea of Venus becoming the ‘light-bearer’. The tour bus implies that the passengers on the bus are there to expand their social horizons. It also implies a communal desire for expanded awareness. The inferior conjunction is in an approaching square to Pluto, which points to tearing down barriers to expanded group awareness. This conjunction heralds a new public awareness relating to many areas of life, most especially political because of the involvement of Pluto since Pluto expresses the 1st ray, the ray of politics, but also of the destroyer of illusion. And finally, the Venus/Sun conjunction takes place in the Scorpio full moon period, two days before the full moon. We will have more to say about this in the Scorpio letter. No doubt much will have changed in the world by then. Next, a quick word on the Libra new moon is in order.
The Libra new moon takes place on 10 Oct 2026 at 15:50 UTC (02:50 AEDT on the 11th). This makes for a rather interesting figure given the present circumstances. The lunation is in a wide separating opposition to Saturn, but in a close approaching square with the dwarf planet Ceres. When we place the Sabian symbol along with the aspects just described some suggestive symbolism appears. The Sabian symbol for the lunation point is as follows:
As we know, actions have consequences. Under international law, the war against Iran, along with the genocide in Gaza is illegal, punishable by arrest and imprisonment for the perpetrators, not that we would ever see those people arrested, unfortunately. Our Western liberal democracies do not like to admit it, but our governments have been the aggressors in both wars (Iran and Ukraine) as well as the enablers of the genocide. Even in Ukraine, Russia has been within its rights. We won’t argue the latter point here but under the treaties signed at the end of World War II Russia has every right to defend itself against Nazism. We prefer not to remember, but Nazism was a rising, alarming and prominent force in Ukraine as reported in the Western press. The West provoked that war.
What this figure for the new moon represents is a comeuppance for aggressor states – facing the consequences of past actions. What these might be will be described in emerging detail in what follows in the second part of this letter. The lunation is also in an approaching sextile to Jupiter, which enhances the possibility for justice to be served. It also represents an expansion in awareness and a coming together of sympathetic groups and states. Mars is still in its opposition with Pluto, though separating. Ceres is about to go out of bounds where it will remain for some time. Given the supply crises we are only now beginning to experience, transport and supply of goods will be accentuated all the more with Ceres out of bounds.
Venus sits at the apex of a t-square with the Mars/Pluto opposition is the base. Venus receives a minor aspect from Uranus. Alliances will be tested through this period. People’s soul alignment will likewise see strain due to outer events. Many relationships will be tested and rearranged. Perhaps a valid moniker for this t-square is ‘strained relations due to external influences’. In all, this period until the end of this year, if not beyond will be a good measure of our soul alignment and integration, since Venus represents the integrating factor in a chart, esoterically.
With these points in mind we move on to our current events, for which the UN General Assembly is providing some insight. Aside from that, this full moon follows closely on the equinox, with the chart for the equinox showing a very ‘active’ quarter, to put it mildly.
Current events: The following events have taken place since the last letter:
The UNGA: Before we dig deeper into the developments in Europe and West Asia the events to come were previewed in the speeches by state leaders at the UN General Assembly (UNGA). The main speeches of which to take note took place around the equinox. The general debates run from the 22nd through the 28th with Sunday as a day off. Speeches were limited to 15 minutes apiece. Brazil gave the first presentation followed by Donald Trump. The Iranian president Pezeshkian spoke the next day as well as Netanyahu the day after Pezeshkian. The three addresses could not have been more different. Yet, they were all interlinked. Regarding Trump, a few readers may disagree but Trump brought shame on to the US with his remarks at the UNGA, giving one of the most deranged, inappropriate, undiplomatic and disgusting speeches ever made on that podium. Only Netanyahu rivals him in that regard. Trump flouted international law and constitutional law in his speech and in effect spoke in negation of the very principles upon which the United Nations was founded. He had this to say about Iran:
“I have to make an important decision. Will there be a deal with Iran that allows them to build a better country, maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East? Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly, without ever giving them the chance to kill again? Do I drag them to hell with no chance of survival? But I think we’ll reach a deal right after the elections, because it makes no sense for them not to. They’re waiting to see how I do in the elections.”
Spoken like a mafia don, Don. But no, there will be no deal unless Trump decides to re-enter the MoU he signed in Versailles. His speech had the echoes of his notorious lawyer Roy Cohn. However, the decision to which he refers is not his to make. By constitutional law only the Congress can authorize war. Congress has to approve the spending. And the UN is a body dedicated toward the resolution of conflict, specifically stated in the UN Charter, that threats against other nations are not to be countenanced. There been many comments to the effect that in his speech Trump was threatening the use of nuclear weapons against Iran, which is the only way he could annihilate Iran. From what I have read, nuclear weapons are actually off the table.
Trump’s speech was more along the lines of posturing rather than being factual. He was speaking to his base leading up to the elections, which in itself is wholly inappropriate for such a platform. Even worse was the fact after his speech no one in Congress, save for one senator, spoke out to contest what he had stated. What we saw in evidence that day was not only a shameful performance by the President. but also by Congress and the Supreme Court for their acquiescence. What this says to the world is that a new round of war is coming, and probably soon given elections are due in Israel and the US within a matter of weeks. And regarding ‘his decision’, The Zionists will be making it for him. ‘Zionists’ refer to those in Israel as well as the wealthy Zionist donors in the US. Trump is enthralled to those people.
The next day the President of Iran took to the podium and directly rebutted what Trump had threatened. His speech was defiant and took no prisoners, so-to-speak. Pezeshkian showed pictures of the children at Minab and the Supreme Leader who had been martyred/murdered on February 28. The lone member of the US delegation in the chamber, upon seeing that stood up and walked out. He must have been the equivalent of one of Netanyahu’s ‘moral cowards’. Pezeshkian told the world Iran would never bend the knee, reiterated that Iran had every right to their peaceful nuclear program, that it was Israel who had the bomb but that inspectors were not allowed, called out the US and participating states for their war crimes who waged war on Iran, the double standards often used against nations and essentially called the US the terrorist state. Contrast Trump’s diatribe about Iran with the following final few words from Pezeshkian’s speech (transcript):
“We seek to think about a world future in which security, fairness, justice, human dignity will become unalienable rights for all people, for all humans. A future in which no people are driven to the sidelines, no voice is lost in the chaos of power, and no power will have the right to determine the future of a people other than those people themselves. If we truly seek to have an order based on international law and standards, it must be based in justice, common human will, uplifting human dignity. Because a peace that does not encompass all is no peace, and fairness and justice that does not embrace all is not worthy of being called justice and fairness.”
Pezeshkian is a Libran, by the way (29 Sep 1954, Mahabad, Iran, no ToD). He had prepared his speech beforehand, but set it aside after he heard Trump’s tirade the day before. It was off-the-cuff and from the heart. And the Iranians heard it. The generals in Iran had warned him against going to the US, but they applauded him after hearing his speech. Now we see various foreign ministers (FMs) meeting with Araghchi (Iranian FM) on the sidelines, such as the FMs of Norway, Qatar, Italy, and Switzerland. The sidelines are where the real connections are made and where diplomacy takes place at the UN.
Araghchi also had a talk with the FM of Ukraine and patiently bore listening to Kaja Kallas as she went on about opening the Strait of Hormuz, with no tolls and droned on (as Western leaders like to do) about repression in Iran and the rise in executions there. As far as repression and executions go, does this girl (mouthpiece) not get that there is a war on, or know that Iranians are out in the streets every day in support of what the West likes to call ‘the regime’? Treasonous people and terrorists who are caught during wartime are often executed, and there have been a fair few of those active in Iran for years, with a lot of them having been rounded up since the war started. But her statements were meant for media consumption to reinforce the narratives about Iran. There are a few reports on social media that FM Araghchi faces a possible impeachment process for talking with Witkoff and Kushner at the sidelines of the UNGA without permission from the Security Council in Iran. It was filed by a single member of the Iranian Parliament, but as of this time nothing has been done. It would be a lengthy process.
The day after Pezeshkian spoke at the UN Netanyahu took to the podium. He started his speech by telling, in his words, all the ‘moral cowards’ who wanted to leave the room should thereby leave. The delegations from 77 nations duly left. That was 1/3 of the room. The Israelis took notes. Those delegations did not leave because they were cowards, though. They left because a wanted war criminal was standing at the podium. They left as a protest. Netanyahu is also Libran (21 Oct 1949, Tel Aviv, time disputed). The difference between Pezeshkian and Netanyahu and what they represented could not be starker. Yet, if one did not know the histories of Iran and Israel and their relationship, the letter of their messages were quite similar. The context however was, as we say, like chalk and cheese between the two. But the response of the room told the story about who was to be believed. Only one person left during the Iranian debate. One third of the room got up and left for the Israeli debate.
Netanyahu tried to portray the Israelis as the victims all the while they have been committing genocide in Gaza and the West Bank. The fact they are committing genocide has been clearly defined in international standards. He says that Iran has a huge surprise coming and that the country will inevitably be free. Iran is already a free and sovereign state. And they know what the Western powers are planning. The surprise Bibi is talking about is the coming sharp escalation in militarism against Iran. We currently see heavy transport planes flying into the region, like we saw before the outbreak of the war in February. Trump had said that he had a choice to make. The truth be known, the choice has already been made for him. Trump has his marching orders. The US cannot simply pull up stakes and leave the region. Hegemony must be preserved. The small minority of wealthy Zionists in the US and the military-industrial complex cannot allow the US to leave the region or for the Greater Israel project to fail. Netanyahu needs the war to escalate again, as in before the Israeli elections at the end of October.
We will not go into all the details of Netanyahu’s speech. Like Trump’s speech, it was full of lies and misrepresentations. Both speeches were in reality political stumping for their electorates instead of speaking to the international community. We could go line by line and point the lies out in Netanyahu’s speech, but what would be the use? There is a transcript if you want to read it. The wider point here is that it seems inevitable that the war in West Asia will once again escalate. And this time, it really will be existential, for hegemony, for Israel, for Iran and for the Arab Gulf monarchies. If this escalation goes ahead, the entire map of the region will be rewritten over the coming months. And that is probably not hyperbole.
The speeches in the UN General Assembly are called debates, which in fact they are. Those speeches are not meant as diplomacy. The diplomacy, as stated above takes place on the sidelines and in state trips by the various delegations afterwards. The one thing to add before moving on from Netanyahu’s speech are the states that the Israelis now consider to be enemies – Syria (in fact a Turkish and CIA proxy now), Qatar and Turkey, aside from Iran. He singled out Mamdani and New York as well, saying Mamdani’s policies had made New York unsafe for Jews. In fact, the Jewish community in New York has been fairly happy with Mamdani so far. The Israeli ambassador to the US called for Mamdani to be arrested. Just let that sink in for a moment. In years past if an ambassador had made such a remark the entire delegation from that country would have been rounded up, put on a plane and sent back to their own country. The chutzpah of the Israelis has become quite intolerable – which is why the delegations of 77 nations walked out on Netanyahu. From here we need to take a brief look at what is happening with Iran.
Iran update: There are several things every person in the West should know before we get into what follows. The White House is gaslighting the American public regarding Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and some other matters we won’t get into. Perhaps we will highlight some of them in the Scorpio letter. The following points are the truth according to people who have real information:
In other words, whatever we hear from Western leadership regarding Iran and/or Russia is not to be believed. It is typical of wartime propaganda. The Iranians have hardened their policy toward the United States. Apparently there was a deadline of September 30th for the United States to remove its blockade in that period. That ended a 45 day period that was previously enacted by the Iranian Supreme Security Council on August 16. A blockade, being an act of war, means that Iran will probably preemptively strike US ships in the blockade and move the conflict still further out into the Indian Ocean. They have missiles now that can track and hit moving ships. These missiles have a range of about 1600 km. The Iranians say they have hit two American ships including one aircraft carrier, but CENTCOM has been mum on the matter. However, then news came out that 37 sailors and marines (29 sailors and 8 marines) – of the type of personnel who would have been on those ships – have been added to the list of wounded in this war. Something happened to those ships. If Iran strikes preemptively then we will be hearing about more ‘additions’ to casualty lists. Astrologically this would coincide closely with the approach of Mars to the opposition of Pluto as described in the Libra ingress chart.
The Iranians have also stated that they will strike any troop gatherings that look like they might be in preparation for an attack on Iran. If the war goes on, there will be no opening of the Strait of Hormuz into the foreseeable future. And if the blockade is forcibly removed by Iran then the onus will be on the US to respond, or to withdraw. Such statements by Iran do not appear to be posturing. Instead the intention appears to be to keep the economic pressure on the US going up to the midterms. On the other side the Iranians are also under pressure by China and other nations to end the blockade of the Strait in order to avoid a world financial crisis. But that train already appears to have left the station. This was recently outlined in an interview with Chris Martenson which can be seen in Suggested Viewing. Americans and Europeans particularly need to pay attention to what was said in that interview. With that in mind we digress a bit from Iran.
Economies out of gas: Economies run or fail on energy. We are now looking at an energy crisis worse than the one we experienced in the 1970s when only 5% of oil was withheld from markets by the OPEC nations. And it is likely to take 3 to 5 years to fully recover. The linked article tells us why. Simply opening the Strait of Hormuz only begins what will be a long process. And if the US goes all-in on Iran the process of restoring flows and capacity will take at least five years. I remember well the gas lines and the closed gas stations, as I described in letter a while back. It was an adventurous time for a younger person finding workarounds for the lack of gasoline. But for older adults who were looking after families it was a very tense time. It was also around the time of the end of the Vietnam War, when the debt load from the war gave rise to our present fiat currency and the petrodollar. It seems we have come full circle on that period, some 50 years ago. At what sort of scenario are we looking this time around, though? Martenson lays it out pretty clearly in his interview. What follows gives us an idea on what to expect through this period.
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz roughly the 20% of the world’s oil supply and associated products was removed from the markets. Reserve supplies have been tapped in most countries, but those are now approaching critical levels. In addition, we often hear that United States is a net exporter of oil and oil products. That is the narrative anyway. But it is not the truth. The truth is the US is indeed a net exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, the US does not produce enough crude oil, and then of the right quality to sustain its domestic needs without cutbacks. To run its oil refineries at optimal production levels the US has to rely on imports, with a significant portion of the sour crude needed coming from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela and the Middle East.
Around 60% of the total oil imports to the US come from Canada, with Mexico being 2nd in rank. About 20% at most comes from Venezuela now that Venezuela is a puppet state of the US under Delcy Rodriguez. As much of the hype we hear about American exports of petroleum (distillates), the bulk of it goes to Mexico, China, the Netherlands and Japan. Now, with the Saudi East-West pipeline having been cut a further 5 million barrels a day of oil has been removed from the market. It is this type of crude oil from which diesel and jet fuels are derived.
The diesel ban: As of this writing the US government has called on oil refiners to voluntarily cut back on exporting diesel. Diesel falls under the denomination of petroleum distillate, with the largest part of distillate export going to Mexico, Chile and Brazil, as mentioned. These are major food producers and food producers rely on diesel for farming and transport. In times past the US did not export diesel at all. But much has been made in recent news about how hard Europe will be hit with the diesel crisis, where in fact roughly half of Europe’s diesel fuel used to come from Russia. It was an own-goal by the EU to ban Russian energy. There is a rather more conspiratorial point to be made about that and the war itself in a bit here. Another point to add here is that blackmail was mentioned as a feature in this Libra quarter. In fact, the US is now blackmailing Europeans to release their diesel reserves, in order to ease diesel prices in the US. What are friends and allies for? In the EU that amounts to a reduction of €0.14. Scott Bessent, that financial genius (not) stated in social media, “American farmers, truckers, and businesses should not be left carrying the burden of a global diesel shortage.” Why not, Scott? It was you guys who managed to get the Strait of Hormuz closed with your ‘epic fury’ at Iran.
Large suppliers of diesel to Europe used to be India and Turkiye, but sanctions on Russian oil have impacted those supplies, too. Because of the ban on Russian energy the EU turned to the US for diesel supplementation. With the US starting to wind down its diesel exports it will mean higher and higher prices, but not necessarily scarcity. A total ban on US diesel exports would remove roughly 30% of diesel imports into the EU. It would not strangle Europe, but life would not be sunny. Europe uses about 3.5 million barrels of diesel a day when the economy is running well. Because the EU has very limited oil fields it has had to import over half of its diesel needs.
Turning to the US, American refineries produce upwards of 5.5 million barrels of diesel a day. Of that it uses 3.6 million barrels a day. But if it cuts exports, that means refineries will scale back production. A diesel ban will backfire. It may temporarily reduce prices, but keep in mind that gasoline and diesel are produced together, and refineries cannot store the excess diesel. Cutting exports means the refiners will have to cut production. There would be a temporary drop in prices as vendors rush to store those precious freedom molecules, but once the storage is full the refiners will have to cut production. Heating oil is also a distillate product. A diesel ban would affect heating oil, too, along with jet fuel. Is a picture emerging? This administration has not done the math. Instead, all this talk of cutting exports is in effect electioneering. A cut would mean shortages in places like New England, which is primarily a Democrat bloc. It would also hit California and New York, also traditionally Democrat power bases. Is the picture clearer still? In an ironic twist a diesel ban would also affect Texas – Trump country – which is a main transport hub in the US. And finally, an export ban would hand market share to foreign competitors – like India, Turkiye and China, the latter which does not depend on American diesel. Much of China’s transport now is electric anyway.
Bloody idiots: For Australian readers some figures may be of interest. The vast bulk of Australia’s fuel needs are imported. Australia used to have eight refineries, but because of costs involved that number now stands at two – one in Geelong and the other in Brisbane at the Lytton refinery. There was a major fire at the Geelong refinery while I was recently in Australia, which raised fears about Australia’s energy supplies. People were up in arms about why we had to import so much of our fuel when we had the capabilities to refine it in Australia. Because Australia has such reduced refining capabilities fuel has to be imported. The bulk of Australia’s petrol comes from four places – Singapore, South Korea, India and Malaysia, in that order. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz drastically affected the oil supplies to those refineries. In the first phase of the war with Iran China made up for the difference through drawing on its oil reserves. That source is now gone. China is no longer exporting oil. In the year 2000 Australia’s oil production almost matched its oil consumption. Roughly half of all fuel needs in Australia are for diesel. Since 2000 oil production in Australia has steadily fallen while consumption has steadily risen. Consumption now rests at roughly 3 times the production rate. And that’s over a period of only a quarter-century, mate.
Diesel is even more problematic for Australia. Australia has to draw on diesel from more numerous sources than it does for petrol, with the main ones being in South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan. And that accounts for only just over two thirds of supply. The US accounts for only a tiny amount of diesel imports to Australia. The one factor that most affects Australian imports is the loss of oil from the Persian Gulf. Australia produces oil, on the order of 400,000 barrels a day, with the largest part of it being exported, mostly to the aforementioned countries for refining. So, if you’re an Aussie and want to know why Australia exports almost all of its oil, then you have just read the reasons why. It is cheaper to export it and have it returned refined than it is to refine it at home. We saw this happen with steel, for instance during the globalization madness, where it was cheaper to send steel to China, have it processed and returned to us as finished product than it was for us to manufacture products from steel within Australia. I was working in Australia at the time and watched it all happen. When the 2008 financial crisis happened most of the tool and die shops I used to do work for closed their doors and moved overseas – to India and China. Why, because the bloody idiots in power at the time decided globalization was a good idea. Oz used to be ‘the lucky country’. Are we feeling lucky, mates?
Market manipulation: Back to the US, Trump is doing what Trump usually does in seeking to manipulate prices going into elections: “…talk a lot, change little, and hope consumers’ patience doesn’t run out.” In effect what this administration is doing instead is gambling on American energy security in an effort to win elections, aside from the enrichment of himself, his family and his cronies and donors. We will be looking more at this in the Scorpio letter. As a natural eighth house of the zodiac, Scorpio has a relation to other people’s money, as it were, and with losses. These ideas also link into the idea of a conspiracy that is happening, mentioned previously. The fact that Trump has refused the latest offer by the Iranians to open the Strait of Hormuz means that shortages will continue until the war finally ends, which may take many more months since neither the Israelis nor the Americans nor certain of the Gulf monarchies can admit defeat and begin to deal honestly with the Iranians.
Speaking of manipulation of the markets, people who follow oil prices are quite clear on the matter that oil prices are indeed being manipulated. This applies to the futures pricing of oil. However, if one wanted to go out on the open market and actually by a barrel of oil one would have to pay around US$120 a barrel. That price is what is known as the spot price, in other words buying on the spot instead of hedging against future pricing. So, one buys a barrel of oil for $120, but then it has to be shipped to its destination, which can add many tens of dollars to the price of that barrel of oil, depending on where it has to be shipped. The spot price for oil as a result is somewhere in the neighborhood of $140 a barrel with added shipping, which is not reflected on sites like OilPrice, which shows the pricing more in terms of the benchmark prices.
As we have examined in previous letters, the Trump administration would make all kinds of threatening noises toward Iran at the end of each week which would crash the stock markets. But if one knew where to look, one would notice that there were large put options made on oil prices. Before the markets would open on Monday in the US Trump would announce that a deal with Iran was within sight and the prices would shoot upwards, making a windfall for anyone who had placed put options on the pricing of oil. The Iranians have put a stop to that, mostly by saying that any deal with the administration is off the table, that the US is not to be trusted. On top of that, the Iranians are striking any shipping that is not authorized through the Persian Gulf Strait Authority. At present there are no ships moving in the Strait of Hormuz. The port at Fujairah in the Emirates shows the highest activity, but even there most of the ships are at anchor. During the debates at the UN there was hope that the Strait would be opened and that Trump would come to terms with Iran’s conditions. Oil prices dropped during that week. On Monday when the markets opened and Trump had refused the Iranian conditions oil prices began their upward climb again.
The bell tolls: Which makes more sense, then? If fuel prices are such a problem, does it not make more sense to pay the one dollar per barrel toll on oil (you’re not supposed to call it a toll) that passes through the Strait of Hormuz or to blockade the Strait because you want to destroy the Iranian economy? In the meantime you only destroy your own economy. This is what hubris brings us these days. That brings us back to the reason for the war the first place: It was all about control of the oil and breaking up Iran. Neither Washington nor Israel can bring themselves to admit what would be the better part of common sense. Instead the powers behind the throne in Washington still have this vain hope that they can bring Iran to heel.
So, we double down on all kinds of coercive measures to try to defeat Iran, whereas in fact all this war is doing is wrecking Western economies and a big part of the rest of the world with it. This is what we will have to live with over the next few months at least, because what we are seeing makes little to no common sense and begins to turn our minds toward some larger conspiracy behind it all. It would appear, like we saw with the COVID crisis, that there is a deliberate plan to wreck the middle-class and send the bulk of the world’s population into debt slavery. We won’t cover it here, but you can listen to the video in Suggested Viewing, “The greatest fraud in human history.” We will look at that a little closer in the next letter, as it makes for a good Scorpio investigation. And on that note, since this letter has gotten longer and longer as events unfold, we stop here and continue in the second half of our Libra theme. It’s revolutionary what is happening, you see?
Continued in Part 2…
Suggested Viewing:
Daniela Cambone Show: The Biggest Energy Shock of Our Lifetime. Chris Martenson
Tucker Carlson: I Went to Iran and Was Detained by the Trump Admin Max Blumenthal
Dialogue Works: Middle East Shaken to Its Core Col. Lawrence Wilkerson
Glenn Diesen: Ukraine Endgame Is Here — West Will Fragment Douglas Macgregor
Jedaal English: Khamenei’s Last Move documentary
Judging Freedom: The Saudis’ Dangerous Predicament Alastair Crooke
Why Netanyahu Is Losing His Bet Col. Lawrence Wilkerson
Danny Haiphong: Trump Chooses War! Iran Blows Open Israeli Airport Hoax
Larry Johnson, Lawrence Wilkerson
Trump Surges 10,000 Troops! Iran Hits US Carrier Next Alastair Crooke
The Peter McCormack Show: The Greatest Fraud In Human History Prof. Richard Werner
John Mearsheimer: Is Ukraine Committing National Suicide?
Neutrality Studies: Looting Russia: Why the British Empire Never Died Alex Krainer
Ron Paul Institute: Occupied Government in Crisis Max Blumenthal
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