2014 in L'Alpe di Siusi, fresh from the US and Australia.
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Current Moon Phase
Scorpio
Into the fire!
The full moon
Current events
The election that shook the West
MIGA
More war?
The future of Europe
NATO’s three myths
The dense fog
Ukraine update
WWIII! WWIII!
Hazelnuts
Why Ukraine?
The ‘Victory’ plan
Demands and realities
In conclusion
Greetings Everyone!
And Happy Thanksgiving, to all who celebrate it! Halloween has come and gone here in Rovereto, and all the little monsters have returned to school. It is a city tradition here to begin preparing for Christmas just after Halloween. Soon enough the Christmas market stalls will be in place. The city has already finished its installation of the Christmas lights. After this letter is finished, the task falls to me here at the house. And winter is already here, by the way the temperature is trending. It is close to freezing in the mornings, unusual for this time of year. Here at the house we bid farewell to our oldest guerriero (warrior), our 17 y/o English setter, who had been with us for a couple of years after his padrone (master) had passed. Cancer finally claimed Igory (the setter), along with advanced age. It is the way of things. He started as a guest for a month, but here we know how that goes. He was part of the ‘family’ soon enough. He’ll be missed, of course, as they all are when they pass. But it is the cycle of life, is it not? He had fulfilled his intended experience with us and then
passed on to new experiences. For the people (and dogs here at the house) left behind we experience what in Buddhism is called ‘the suffering of change’ – that is, if one does not enjoy the change. For dogs (and animals in general) the ‘great transition’ holds no terror, for they know it as being no different than going to sleep. It is only our emotional attachments that cause us to suffer when change this way comes.
This period since the last full moon has been quite intense. There is a particular transit, still in effect, active on a world scale that has caused us to consider detaching ourselves from situations that no longer suit – in other words, attachments that hinder the realization of our spiritual journey, individual and collective. That transit is described under the topic of the full moon, but it involves the rulers of the sign under consideration for our theme for this letter, which is Scorpio. As experience teaches us over time, change always carries with it the promise of opportunity. In one respect the opportunity is to see things anew. In another respect change allows us to free ourselves of ‘unwanted baggage’, to heal ourselves of painful memories and experiences, to address the primary traumas in our lives, oft unremembered, that cause us to cling to what we feel makes us safe, but in other guises bind us in emotional and mental prisons of our own making. At one and the same time, we want to feel safe and happy, while on the other side our souls beckon us to break the bonds of worldly matters in order to experience true freedom and happiness, unconditioned by the experiences of worldly life. To choose the path of true freedom takes us strongly out of our perceived comfort zones. To break out of prison is often painful, but at the same time involves strategic thinking, as in training the mind. We then tread the warrior’s path. It matters little whether we stumble and fall on that path. What matters is that we thereafter gather ourselves up and continue, with the vision of our coming victory still clear in our minds. With these points in mind we move on to a more pointed look at Scorpio for this year.
Scorpio: Scorpio rules the natural 8th house of the zodiac, connected with death and transformation. In the old orthodoxy, Scorpio was ruled by Mars. In our current astrology, the sign is ruled by Pluto, the latter in its role as a transformative force. This is a sign that carries tremendous potency. Mars is ‘objective and full of blood’,[3] with the Mars rulership governing all the earthly passions to which we human beings are subject. Passion can be directed toward good or ill, as we know. We can have a passion for what we do, which produces inspired work and creativity. By the same token we can direct our passions ‘downward’ toward fanatical ends, and in the process destroy ourselves. It is this idea of directed passions that brings in the Pluto rulership of the sign, because aside from being quite a passionate sign, it is also a very willful sign. Mars transmits the 6th ray[4] (devotion or fanaticism) and rules the entire personality,[5] while Pluto transmits the 1st ray[6] (will or power). Because of these two rulerships, experience in Scorpio brings about transformation in the mean, and death in the extreme. The ‘death’ referred to here can be figurative or literal, but in general it refers to the death of old situations and the end of personal desires.
Into the fire!: The fires of our human system are employed to effect the transformation from worldly intelligence to universal consciousness. Every level of the personality is affected by this transformation. What we are talking about here is the utilization of the fire at the base of the spine, which is normally only concerned with maintaining the temperature of the body. This is the Mars phase of kundalini, known as ‘kundalini latent’.[9] Kundalini is also known as caṇḍālī fire and tummo (gtum mo, or ‘fierce woman’ in Tibetan). Through certain exercises that fire is stimulated. Normally it is like a warm coal at the base of the spine, though we do not notice it. Through said exercises that coal is kindled into a flame, small at first, but noticeable nonetheless, at which point it is consciously directed upward through the central channel of the spine, bringing about revelations in consciousness and changing completely our world view – thereby challenging us at all nine facets of the Scorpio hydra – physical, emotional and mental.[10] This is the ‘kundalini active’ stage, ruled by Mercury.[11]
Once the inner battle is engaged, however, increasing levels of bliss are encountered, which encourage the warrior forward toward the goal. Thus encouraged, each victory in battle brings increased insight – into one’s own nature, the nature of reality itself, an increasingly expanded awareness, which leads then into the Sagittarian phase, discussed in the next letter. In the end, once a sort of ‘critical mass’ or critical phase of the battle is passed, the struggle becomes less and less until finally, through all the strenuous effort, the disciple can honestly claim, “Warrior I am and from the battle I emerge triumphant.”[13] With all this as background we move on to the consideration of the full moon and the current events.
The full moon took place on 15 Nov 2024 at 21:28 UTC (8:28 am AEDT on the 16th). It is a dynamic figure, signaling the imposition/introduction of a new rhythm in world affairs, as well as the revelations about past deeds that will come with those changes. Since this full moon follows upon the US election, the Sabian symbols may be able to cast further light on what was just stated:
The solar degree refers to the ability to see the structural buttressing of all events. It represents a revelatory experience, wherein anyone who chooses to see the undercurrents of one’s life or the forces that underpin world events can reveal to themselves the truth of any matter. What we see with this full moon is a culminating event in public awareness. The election in the US has revealed the truth about American leadership, for instance, and the same is becoming apparent for Europe. In his speech at the Valdai Discussion Club, Vladimir Putin spoke of the ‘moment of truth’:
“There comes, in a way, the moment of truth. The former world arrangement is irreversibly passing away, actually it has already passed away, and a serious, irreconcilable struggle is unfolding for the development of a new world order. It is irreconcilable, above all, because this is not even a fight for power or geopolitical influence. It is a clash of the very principles that will underlie the relations of countries and peoples at the next historical stage…”
The entire speech is worth reading in full. If we do not make the effort to see all sides of events then we fail to see the underlying structure – the cause and effect behind events. The lunar degree on the other hand refers to our collective shared experience and enjoyment. It represents our efforts to live in peace based in our shared experience. That is coming under review, shown by Uranus in the full moon figure conjunct the Moon and the lunation axis. That conjunction is the key to the chart.
Additional matters in the lunation figure are the out-of-bounds (OOB) planets – Mercury, Venus and Ceres. Ceres’ long sojourn OOB this year has shown us the inflexion points we have been undergoing for the past month – in politics, in conflicts and in environment. Ceres is slowly descending back in-bounds, when it will return in mid-January of next year. Mercury and Venus will attain their maximum southern declination on the 18th of this month in parallel declination. Mercury and Venus OOB represent excessive focus on communications and relations. At this point of transition, between East and West, between administrations in the US, it will be difficult at times to discern the truth. Special attention will need to be paid to taking what we hear with a grain of salt and not to read too much into what we see transpiring in terms of partnerships and financial matters.
Mars is still opposite Pluto, which has been a very difficult transit for some people. Mars/Pluto combinations are quite powerful and volatile. The two planets represent the soul (Mars) and personality (Pluto) of a great systemic Being, whose emanation brings out the inner warrior in each of us, depending upon how that present astrological opposition has landed in your chart. Mars/Pluto combinations (aspects or midpoints) are often signals of surgeries, accidents, arguments and cutting of ties. That opposition began to make its effect felt in mid-October, and it will be passing out over the next week or so. The inner warrior, our soul, in each of us has been stimulated during that period. It is for us to make use of what we have learned from experiences going forward. With these points in mind we move on to the current events and the evolving international evolution.
Before we get to the essentials, there is a rumor circulating in US intelligence (see last paragraph in linked post) that Biden arranged with Trump to throw the election, this after the debate between Biden and Trump showed that Biden would lose, badly. The deal was Biden’s family would be safe from prosecution once Trump took office. Watch and see, Biden haters. The thing is there were many liberals and Democrat voters who were hoping Trump would be sent to jail for his corruption and past deeds, but which never eventuated. American presidents never do time. We consistently saw posts since 2017 in social media asking why Trump was not in prison. Remember all the newscasts saying ‘the walls are closing in’ on Trump early in his first term? Well, there are probably an equal number of Republican voters who would love to see Biden on trial and headed for prison. There was the Hunter Biden laptop story (which was buried) and Biden’s dealings with Ukraine. We won’t go over old ground here. But for voters on both sides of the aisle, as it were, let it go. Neither man is going to be put on trial for his actions as president. There are too many skeletons. They are both old men, too. Trump is going to face considerable challenges going into office as it is. The world has changed quite considerably since the mid-teens this century. We will cover some of that in what follows. But for starters, Trump will see many attempts at sabotaging his agendas once he assumes office.
Trump’s biggest international detractors have been in Western Europe and across NATO, where Trump had demanded in his first administration that Europe (NATO) shoulder more of the burden for their self-defense. Fair enough, but there are pertinent questions as to why Europe should be spending so much more on defense anyway when in fact it would be so much easier to make peace with Russia and operate on a business basis instead of a geopolitical zero-sum threat basis. And now we hear Trump talking about slapping tariffs on European imports, all the while the US is the EU’s biggest trading partner. The picks for Trump’s cabinet are not at all encouraging for the EU.
MIGA: Word on social media now is that Miriam Adelson is choosing Trump’s cabinet picks. OK, it’s not true, but the people he has chosen thus far makes it look as though the 2nd Trump administration will be all about making Israel great again (MIGA), rather than putting America first. Just keep in mind as we go along here, that nearly all of these picks have to be approved by a Senate majority vote. As it stands the Republicans have control of the Senate, but they do not have a two-thirds majority. So, we may be seeing some of these potential cabinet picks going by the wayside. And in general, the Republicans have control of both the House and the Senate, but the majorities are slim, which could well lead to a hung Congress on some issues. However, Trump’s cabinet picks thus far are nearly all staunch Israel supporters – Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff), Marco ‘Narco’ Rubio (Secretary of State), Mike Waltz (National Security Advisor), Lee Zeldin (EPA Administrator), Kristi Noem (DHS Secretary), Elise Stefanik (US Ambassador to the UN), John Ratcliffe (CIA Director), Pete Hogseth (Secretary of Defense), Mike Huckabee (US Ambassador to Israel), Tom Homan (Border Czar) and lastly, Elon Musk (DOGE). We should probably take note of a few things about Musk and this new ‘department’.
Musk followers will be familiar as well with Musk’s tweets about Dogecoin, a crypto currency. He didn’t invent that one, either. In fact, Dogecoin was started as a joke. It is the first meme coin, specifically taking its name from ‘dog coin’. As to Musk’s connection with it, the Australian founder of Dogecoin has pegged Musk as “a self-absorbed grifter”. Another note worthy of mention, in case you haven’t heard, is that the DoGE ‘department’ does not exist. Such a department would have to be created by Congress, who would then have to approve or trash all the recommendations from the DoGE. Instead it is an initiative created to slash government spending (Heads-up, America!), while the name of the initiative sounds somewhat familiar to the satirical Dogecoin. Is this a Musk initiative, or Trump’s? You can decide.
In some ways the creation of this department is more troubling to the average American than all the Israel-firsters Trump is recommending for his cabinet. The initiative will be co-headed with Vivek Ramaswamy. Have a read through the linked thread and read through the links there if you want to know who Ramaswamy actually is. These two billionaires,
“…will pave the way for my [the Trump] Administration to dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies – Essential to the “Save America” Movement. “This will send shockwaves through the system, and anyone involved in Government waste, which is a lot of people!” stated Mr. Musk.”
Again, heads-up, America! Musk claims the agency, which would operate outside of government in an advisory capacity, could cut $2 trillion of government spending, which would be virtually impossible to do without touching Medicare, Social Security and the DoD budget. If Congress approves those cuts we are going to see a major revolt, both within and outside government, especially if these people try to go after Social Security. Congress’ revolving-door policy regarding industry would be on the chopping block, too. This administration would be facing the Washington ‘Borg’ (establishment), where there are career people inhabiting those agencies. We should not think for a minute they will simply allow their bread and butter to be taken away from them. The ‘shockwaves’ Musk is predicting will be the blowback on the DoGE and the Trump administration.
The Department of Defense is where the cuts really need to come if Trump is truly anti-war. Remember, we went off the gold standard in the West precisely because Washington could not finance its military adventurism. The Pentagon is one of the most corrupted institutions in US government. Remember the ‘missing $2.3 trillion’ under Rumsfeld’s tenure as SecDef? He announced that on 10 Sep 2001. Guess what happened the day after? The $2.3 trillion was memory-holed. And the Pentagon just failed its 7th audit. Let’s see Musk and Co. try to impose an audit on the DoD. The Pentagon is the only federal agency that has not complied with a 1996 law that requires transparency and reporting on an agency’s budget. Do we suspect a little corruption there? And do we expect defense spending to be cut? If all these cabinet picks are confirmed, defense spending will likely go up. That brings us to our two major conflicts, where the US-backed regimes are not doing very well at all. But before that, there is another point of interest with this administration, too.
Lastly, there are three other names with which we are now familiar who have gained nominations for Trump’s cabinet – Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence),
Matt GaetzPam Bondi (Attorney General) and RFK, Jr. (Health and Human Services). The nomination of these three in particular has sent shivers through the establishment. RFK Jr. would handle the largest budget in the US, which includes Health, Medicare and Medicaid as it biggest single concerns. Social Security was removed from HHS in 1995 and given its own federal office. RFK, Jr’s is perhaps one of the most important nominations looking into the future, because without a healthy populace the nation would be mired long into the future in medical costs, disability payments, lost time at work, work incidents, high insurance costs (even greater than now), inability to field an army, and so on. A Lancet report just published has found that 75% of the American public is either overweight or obese. That is an astonishing figure. And just because the report is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, that is not a reason to dismiss it. Just look around, if you live in the US. I see it every time I go back. Look at the people, the medical advertising on TV and what they advertise, the costs for medication, the lack of affordable health care, the extreme prevalence of fast food chains – on and on and on. Cancer rates among young adults are double what they were at the start of this century, too. Obesity is a factor as well as the amount of vaccinations Americans receive as children. Someone is making huge profits at the cost of America’s health. The health insurance industries and Big Pharma would be immediately under RFK, Jr’s microscope. For comparison, the DoD, who run our forever wars, comes in at 4th place in terms of the size of the budget.Matt Gaetz as AG was another controversial pick, as he had taken no funding from the Israel lobby. But more important is that he holds the Department of Justice accountable for its politicization and corruption. He stepped down due to an investigation into his dealings with an underage girl. Pam Bondi was Florida Attorney General and is a Trump ally. And this brings up an important consideration: According to the few Washington retired insiders I have heard, none of these picks may even be in the cabinet in a year. Attrition is forecast to be high. There is another twist, too: For Gabbard and RFK, Jr., it is known they would likely be rejected by the Senate in the confirmation process. However, they can still be installed under a little-known mechanism during the Congressional recess, known as recess appointments. But such cabinet picks would only be allowed to serve a matter of a few months. However, in choosing these latter people Trump has given the ‘Deep State’ the middle finger.
The future of Europe: Emmanuel Todd, French historian, has a new book out from January of this year, The Defeat of the West. It has recently been translated to Italian. There is not currently an edition in English. He recently gave an interview to the Italian daily Corriere di Bologna. (archived, in Italian, original) The book has raised a few eyebrows here in Europe and has brought Todd more than a little criticism. His writings have been controversial – to the powers in Europe who would rather we not focus on history. We will get to a few of his comments in a moment, but first there are some points we should know. We have looked at the phenomenon many times in these letters, but we know our information from mainstream sources about the world at large has been ‘filtered’, shall we say. Our media wants us to focus upon official narrative and nonsense instead of facts. More specifically, what the media enjoins us to believe is devoid of history – history that gives us context and a wider view. In other words, what we get from mainstream sources is most often focused upon specific events, as if those events arose spontaneously. October 7th is a good current example of such, which the Israeli hasbara machine would have us believe was an ‘unprovoked’ assault on Israeli society, an isolated event.
“The fact is that the United States has not been able to produce the military equipment that the Ukrainians need, because it is a fact that the power of their industry has been drained by financialization [off-shoring, downsizing]. It is a fact that the Ukrainian army is in retreat and it is a fact that it has difficulty recruiting soldiers. It is a fact that Western economic sanctions have done more damage to the European economy than to the Russian one and it is also a fact that the political stability of France is today more threatened than that of Russia [same with many Western nations]. The restructuring of the Russian economy has been made possible by the fact that this country produces more engineers [and STEM graduates in general] than the United States and by the fact that countries that are not allies or subjects of the United States have continued to trade with Russia.”
This brings us to the future of Europe, or more specifically the EU. Pay careful attention to his answer regarding the future of Europe, which hinges on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, bolding and italics added:
“Q: You argue that Europe has delegated the representation of the West to the United States and is now paying the consequences. How do you think this trend can be changed?
A: “At the moment we can do nothing else. A war has begun. It is the outcome of this war that will decide the fate of Europe. If Russia is defeated in Ukraine, European submission to the Americans will last for a century. If, as I believe, the United States is defeated, NATO will disintegrate and Europe will be left free. Even more important than a Russian victory will be the Russian army’s halt on the Dnieper and the Putin regime’s lack of will to militarily attack Western Europe. With 144 million inhabitants, a declining population and 17 million square kilometers, the Russian state is already struggling to occupy its [own] territory. Russia will have neither the means nor the desire to expand once the borders of pre-communist Russia are reconstituted. The Russophobic hysteria of the West, which fantasizes about the desire for Russian expansion in Europe, is simply ridiculous for a serious historian. The psychological shock that awaits Europeans will be to understand that NATO does not exist to protect us but to control us.“
There is a little bit more, but perhaps the most important insight into the causes of the war:
“Q: Do you think that Europe took the final step towards this subordination [to the US] during the conflicts in the Balkans, and especially with the issue of Kosovo?
A: “No, it all started in Ukraine. During the war in Iraq, after Kosovo, Putin, Schröder and Chirac held joint press conferences. This terrified Washington. It seemed that America could be expelled from the European continent. The separation of Russia from Germany then became a priority for American strategists. Worsening the situation in Ukraine served this purpose. Forcing the Russians to enter the war to prevent the de facto integration of Ukraine into NATO was, initially, a great diplomatic success for Washington. The shock of the war paralyzed Germany and allowed the Americans, in the general confusion, to blow up the Nordstream gas pipeline, symbol of the economic understanding between Germany and Russia. Obviously, in a second phase, that of the American defeat, American control over Europe will be pulverized. Germany and Russia will meet again. This conflict is in a certain sense artificial. The natural thing, in a low-fertility Europe, with its aging population, is the complementarity between German industry and Russian energy and mineral resources.”
We remember, from the creation of NATO in the post-WWII era, that its stated purpose was to ‘keep the Americans in, the Soviets out and the Germans down.’ NATO’s only role, as it turns out, is to keep American leverage over Europe, especially its economy. Another way of stating it is NATO exists to ensure American hegemony over Europe. It is a ‘defensive’ organization only in the sense of defending America’s ‘interests’. What we see from Todd’s quotes, above, is that rather than posing a threat to Europe, Russia instead offers a lifeline to Europe’s economy. It is in European interests to end the war in Ukraine and to make peace, instead of European elites trying to prop up NATO, and begin talking to Russia again. The US, with all its might, will do its worst to prevent such a rapprochement.
NATO has Scorpio rising, with a Sun, Moon and Saturn stellium in Virgo, all squaring Chiron. The latter highlights NATO’s focusing upon old wounds and fears as a means of control. Scorpio in its lowest manifestation is devious and controlling anyway, and the rulers of Scorpio in NATO’s chart are elevated, giving them prominence in NATO’s expression. If NATO were to break up tomorrow, as a growing number of people would hope, Europe would be better off and could then begin to chart its own destiny. There is word through the grapevine that upon word of Trump’s election, “American officers across NATO centers – especially Poland – are now shredding and deleting EVERY VITAL DOCUMENT they can put their hands on in order to leave no traces ahead of Trump’s January inauguration.” Oh, what a tangled web we weave. And what would they be trying to erase, pray tell? Plans for escalations? Plans for forcing more money out of EU taxpayers? Plans to keep the war going as long as possible? Who knows? But NATO relies on several myths to keep it going as a viable concern, one of the chief ones now being the trope that Russia is an aggressive power seeking to take over Europe, or at least all of Ukraine. The NATO spoxes obviously show no knowledge or regard for Russia’s concerns, much less those of Europe.
NATO’s three myths: NATO (largely an extension of Washington foreign policy) carries on as if oblivious to Russian concerns, or perhaps more concerning, thinking Russian warnings to NATO are all huff and bluster. Russia is seen by many denizens of The Beltway as ‘Nigeria with snow’. But NATO holds its present status quo based upon three big myths, as recently outlined in a book on the organization by Sevim Dağdelen, member of the German Bundestag: 1) It’s all about defence and international law; 2) It is based in the principles of democracy and the rule of law; and 3) It is based in the community of values and human rights. All three of those points are lies, which is unsurprising, given Dağdelen knows NATO from the inside, having served in the NATO Parliamentary Assembly for many years. And those lies have been laid bare since the start of this century to all except much of the Western public, the latter who are deliberately kept in the dark about NATO’s true colors.
The dense fog: The RAND Corporation has stated outright that the US should be mounting major psy-ops against Russia, North Korea and China. Iran would fall into that mix, too. The fog of war is very dense indeed these days, with several stories being pushed by the mainstream media so as to color our perceptions of the West’s ‘adversaries’. We might list a few of those tropes here, keeping in mind all of the following are false:
We will address these briefly one-by-one from the top down, so we can move on to more serious matters. Firstly, there are North Korean troops in Russia. Russia and North Korea have had friendly relations for years and troops from NK have routinely trained in far eastern Russian for decades. But there is no evidence they are on the front lines in eastern Ukraine. There are Oriental Russians on the front lines who could be mistaken for North Koreans, such as the Buryat minority (I hear Orientals all look alike. That’s sarcasm, by the way.), but Russia has no need for North Koreans. Russia has more than enough of its own troops to finish the war in Ukraine, and Kursk is soon to be completely purged of Ukrainian troops. Next, the alleged Trump call to Putin was denied by the Russian government, as well as by Ukraine. In like kind, the folks in the Iranian delegation in New York were quite surprised to learn that Musk met with them (It didn’t happen). Is Musk even authorized to do such a thing? And although there are many tweets and articles saying he did, Musk himself is mum on the matter if he did.
Next, there is no evidence Biden has forbidden any strikes deep within Russian territory. The authorization, however, would apply only to Kursk and border areas in order to help the Ukrainians against the evil regime in Pyongyang. London and Paris briefly walked back any intention to strike deeply within Russia. Turkiye, as far as we know, has no intention of leaving NATO. This rumor and variants of it has been floating around for a few years. Next, if Iran is so weak, why have the Israelis not finished the job? They didn’t interrupt their large strike on Iran in late October out of the goodness of their hearts. And the last point leads us into the Ukraine update. It appears Washington wants to prolong the war a little longer in order to leave a quagmire for the incoming administration. Hear this out.
WWIII! WWIII!: Are you scared now? How many times have we heard this, as in every time Ukraine strikes something inside Russian territory? As it stands, we have heard this quite a bit in social media across the board. Every time some wunderwaffen – the next and greatest weapon that will win the war for Ukraine – has been sent to Ukraine the cry goes forth that such and such weapon brings us that much closer to WWIII, nuclear armageddon. With ‘Biden’ authorizing the use of ATACMS against Russia, various pundits were certain London, Paris and Berlin were assured of annihilation if the missiles were used against Russia. Well, they were, and the Russians are rather bemused by it all. But they have updated their nuclear doctrine, just so everyone knows what to expect if there ever was any real attempt to defeat Russia militarily. And Trump now, in a speech in the last few days, has said the truth out loud (Listen to the speech if you want to know) regarding the war in Ukraine being a proxy war, the need to dismantle the system in the US that keeps dragging us into endless wars, pretending to fight for freedom and democracy abroad, and to overhaul the entire system in order to put America(ns) first. Like him or not, and aside from his political hyperbole there, he spoke the truth in that speech, except for one thing – the US will be unable to bring about a ceasefire or end to the war. What is really going on here, though? Given the timing of these strikes, especially since Biden refused permission before, gives us a clue as to what is really going on. This appears to be more about American politics than it is about helping Ukraine. In fact, firing these missiles into Russia only makes matters worse for Ukraine. Let’s have a look…
As much as many people would like to think, Trump will be unable to stop the war in Ukraine. He can accelerate the end if he stops sending weapons and money there, but he will meet resistance if he tries, both from the MIC and abroad. Nor can Trump force Zelenskyy to the negotiating table, and neither would the Russians even sit across the table from Zelenskyy anyway, as they see he is not the legitimate leader of Ukraine. Zelenskyy and his regime has to go before the Russians would even consider talking to Washington about an end to the war, and even then the Russians will agree to nothing if their security demands are not met. Putin is in the driver’s seat now. Trump will not be able to pile weapons into Ukraine when Putin refuses Trump’s peace plan for several reasons, the primary reason being the Russians have all but cut off resupply routes to the front lines in Ukraine. The effect of sending weapons to Ukraine would be nil.
There is a detailed description of the missile and what its deployment will mean (paywalled). There is also an interview with Prof. Theodor ‘Ted’ Postol, emeritus professor from MIT, where he goes into the details of the missile, from what we know so far. His conclusions should be chilling for the West: It is a new system. There are no current defenses against such a missile. And most of the so-called ‘experts’ on the internet commenting on it in reality know very little. Essentially, the testing of this missile and its deployment served as a final warning to NATO. We need détente instead of rhetoric and fearmongering. NATO’s dismissal of this weapon is foolish. Russia has just released a list of the NATO bases in Europe that would be hit with such a missile if escalations continue. But if in their ignorance and hubris the Western powers want to escalate and they think Putin is bluffing, all that can be said is FAFO (look it up if you are not familiar with the acronym).
There are a few things to note regarding this latest ATACMS incident that was basically meant to scare us all to death and to prolong the war a little longer. Firstly, six ATACMS were fired into the Bryansk region, with the target being an old Soviet ammo dump. They are basically useless when it comes to pushing back against Russia. There was no direct hit. Five of the missiles were shot down. Satellite pictures show no real damage. There were no secondary explosions, which one would see if ammo had actually been hit. And to top it off, Ukraine used six out of the estimated 40 – 50 ATACMS they have to hit this insignificant target. ATACMS are in short supply, worldwide. What did that tell the Russians? It told them that the Pentagon has the situation under control, that the Americans chose such a military target, knowing it would not affect the outcome in any major way. They did not target Russian troops. When all the results are tallied, this attack was for PR, to boost Ukrainian morale a little. But it was certainly no threat to the Russian state. Of course, the Russians will respond to it, but this little pinprick from Ukraine pales in comparison to what the Russians do to Ukraine on a daily basis. But the ATACMS strike can also be seen as a sort of Hail Mary effort by the Biden administration to prolong the war. It has already seen backlash.
Members of Congress were livid over the supposed authorization to use those weapons. Republicans were quick to levy articles of impeachment against Biden, which is pure politics when one sits down and analyzes it. Democrats tried impeachment twice against Trump in his first administration. Is the Republican effort now just political grandstanding and payback because they couldn’t impeach Biden the first time, even while the US is supplying everything to Israel for its genocide against Palestinians and has authorized sending billions of dollars’ worth of weapons to Ukraine in a bipartisan effort? And just a little reminder: American weapons were used in the Kursk invasion, ATACMS against the Kerch Strait Bridge, and so on.
If Trump tries to hardball the Russians with threats of war, the Russians see that sort of talk as empty bluster, and they disrespect it. NATO has a plan (meaning Washington has a plan) to rearm to the point they can go head-to-head with Russia by 2030. The Russians are ready for war with NATO now. If NATO troops are sent into Ukraine, NATO will lose. The combined West simply just does not have the industrial capacity to go head-to-head with Russia. And to regain that capacity would take years and would impose a major financial burden on the peoples of Europe and the US, not to mention a big increase in debt. National debt is already one of the biggest challenges facing Western nations as it is. Why add to it? And on another note about NATO, the COVID pandemic response policy (lockdowns, etc.) were run by NATO. COVID was used as a military exercise, as recently revealed by the Dutch Health Minister. There are many people who believe the virus was engineered in a lab. But we return to Ukraine, which by the way had a number of clandestine US biolabs in its territory. To get an idea why politics about Ukraine are so incandescent in this transition period, we need to look at where the conflict is at this juncture and just what is at stake.
Why Ukraine?: There are two main reasons the US and Western Europe got involved in Ukraine to start with – huge resources of gas (and here), minerals (and here) and rich farmland; and a chance to get at Russia, in order ultimately to leave China exposed. Those days are gone. Ukraine is seen as one of the main gateways to Russia, the other being through the Caucasus. Ukraine’s huge resources were the prize that was eyed at the start of this conflict, while the Russians were deemed to be ‘in the way’, especially the Russian-speaking people of eastern Ukraine. Alastair Crooke recently spelled out why the US and Europe are so interested in Ukraine, both in terms of resources and in terms of short-circuiting the Belt and Road Initiative, and why they see Ukraine as so essential in ‘countering’ Russia:
“I think behind this and behind the pressure to go on in Ukraine is really also the fact that is often overlooked, that the third greatest gas reserves in Europe lie in the Donbas and in Kharkov and also other reserves are offshore in Crimea. A number of American companies had spent a lot of money putting in bids for these. Potentially this could supply the gas instead of Russian gas for Europe. It was a geopolitical stroke, so we had firms such as Exxon, Halliburton and Shell and others all signing contracts before the war with Ukraine for its fracking gas in the Donbas and Kharkov and offshore gas off Crimea. Then you’ve got the other great resource of Ukraine, certainly sort of up to the Dnieper which is land because this land is the Bread Basket of Europe and BlackRock own it. They literally have a mortgage on all that farmland.
The future is really in that Central Asian Corridor. That is where the growth is going to come. They are just on the brink of a huge growth and they need fuel and they need conduit corridors, channels. Iran provides both of those, by the way, and is crucial. That’s why both Russia and China are investing in Iran’s energy. Russia doesn’t need it. China takes 95% of Iran’s energy, but the whole of this development, what used to be called the Belt and Road through Central Asia. I mean look at Siberia: It’s humming with economic activity. I don’t mean just mining and oil. It’s the most vibrant economy in the world at the moment, though, and they need fuel for that and they need food for the people.”
And as it stands now, the West is losing its access to all the resources just mentioned, except for the farmland. We have yet to see how that goes, because west of the Dnieper there are regions that may yet go to Russia, at least over time, and some of the richest farmland in present day Ukraine is in those regions. Yes, a river runs through the resolution of this conflict, mentioned above. So, what is the plan to end the war, at present? In the West there doesn’t seem to be one.
The ‘Victory’ plan: Zelenskyy was in Washington some weeks ago to wave his first delusional victory plan under the noses of officials in Washington to see if there was anything there. His presentation was ‘underwhelming’. Washington shrugged. Meanwhile Zelenskyy and the Pennsylvania Governor paid a visit to a Philadelphia munitions plant where they were shown signing artillery shells. The visit didn’t age well with the American public. This is how far our leadership has sunk. But this sort of thing is called ‘supporting the fight for freedom’. Mark Sleboda recently gave this short analysis of the plan and the likely outcome given the current state of Western industrial capacity:
“…the Kremlin doesn’t seem too worried about it. One of the quotes from one of the Russian spokesmen [regarding Zelenskyy] was, “How are we supposed to know what that mad man thinks?” Supposedly he’s going to demand to immediately be admitted to NATO and the EU, he’s going to demand that NATO conduct long range missile strikes in Ukraine (sic) [Russia] which he’s been demanding for months now to no avail. Thus far he’s going to demand unlimited flow of weapons despite the Pentagon at the end of last week saying “tap-tap, we’re out.” CNN reported that the Pentagon has said that future aid packages to the Kiev regime in Ukraine will have to get smaller and less frequent and be drawn solely from production because their own US military stockpiles of the type of equipment such as artillery shells and air defense interceptor missiles that the Kiev regime needs, they’re out. They can’t afford any more without severely affecting the US military’s own potential in a potential conflict situation contingency [like the Middle East].
Note especially the bolded text in the quote: If the US gets involved in a widened conflict in West Asia in support of Israel then the flow of military supplies to Ukraine will slow to a trickle, if not dry up. The collapse of the Ukrainian military would be assured. The same would be true if the US got involved anywhere else militarily. The neoliberal economic system in the US does not favor industrialization. It favors off-shoring. That is one of the main reasons why there is pressure on other NATO members – Europe – to spend more on ‘defense’. So, we ask the question: How long do we realistically expect Ukraine to ‘soldier on’? It should be apparent by now that Ukraine is on its last legs in its war as a NATO proxy against Russia. Europe is facing significant inner turmoil and weak leadership. It is also largely de-industrialized compared to what it was, especially Germany. And being NATO members, the EU are more or less required to purchase US-made military materiel, at exorbitant prices. Did we ever mention war is a racket? But with Ukraine about to fail, perhaps without heat and lighting this winter (the electric war is ramping up again) and NATO beginning to bail out of the conflict (despite what we hear), a lot of talk is beginning to surface in recent weeks about a negotiated end to the conflict. To reiterate, the conflict will end when the Russians are satisfied their security interests are assured – then and only then.
Demands and realities: The Western powers are starting to float the idea of ‘allowing’ Russia to keep the four Oblasts who recently rejoined the Russian Federation and Crimea in exchange for a ceasefire. Once again, this shows either wishful thinking on the part of the West or that they are testing the waters of an end the war to the Russians. Biden wanted some kind of ‘win’ before the election but he didn’t get one in Ukraine. Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister recently clearly outlined the Russian conditions for ending the conflict, as things now stand:
“On 14 June, President Vladimir Putin listed prerequisites for the settlement as follows: complete AFU withdrawal from the DPR [Donetsk People’s Republic], LPR [Luhansk People’s Republic], Zaporozhye and Kherson Oblasts; recognition of territorial realities as enshrined in the Russian Constitution; neutral, non-bloc, non-nuclear status for Ukraine; its demilitarization and denazification; securing the rights, freedoms and interests of Russian-speaking citizens; and removal of all sanctions against Russia.”
boughttaken in Ukraine and to keep the region destabilized. It does not appear the West has learned anything through this conflict. Their approach is an old playbook, like the more recent RAND Corporation plan for weakening Russia. Russia, on the other hand, is raising its military budget for 2025, hedging against NATO entering the war in full, amongst the other conflicts in the world.Putin’s terms as voiced by Lavrov will never be accepted by the West. To do so would be a grand humiliation for the West’s perceived power and influence, and that just cannot be allowed. Once Russia ends the war the West will have to try to invent some sort of ‘victory’ to sell to the Western public. It would be something along the lines of, “We stopped the Russians at the Dnieper River. Europe is saved!” To Russians, anything less than Putin’s demands would be seen as going against Russia’s security and leaving the Russians at risk going into the future. To be clear, there will not be a stalemate in Ukraine. The West does not have the wherewithal to force a stalemate. The Russians will keep going until their objectives, outlined above, are achieved. The only apparent hope of ending the conflict quickly is a coup in Kiev that removes the nationalist regime. Europe is in no position to keep funding Ukraine. Europe’s weapons stocks are severely depleted.
There is another reason negotiations initiated from the Ukrainian side will be unlikely to eventuate:
“Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Merezhko told Financial Times that the far right will dub any talks with the Russians capitulation and called them “a threat to democracy”. A senior Azov movement figure, Maksym Zhorin, says that yes indeed they will and calls the far right “the foundation of country’s security”… For Azov movement and multinational securocratic interests behind it, the war is a lucrative business – an enormous pie they are sharing with the Russian siloviki mafia. They are not going to give it up easily. One can engage in cheap and silly talk about “only 2% of Ukrainians supporting the far right” but they have all the military and political capability to upset any peace and they care little about 98% of Ukrainians. They succeeded in derailing the 2019 Paris agreements…”
But then comes the main reason those forces need to be defeated militarily:
“…They are a major political and military force that should be reckoned with when peace talks start in earnest. If peace is finally reached, these professional soldiers and especially drone operators will fill up the ranks of organised crime in Europe and beyond.”
“The 500-year era of Western civilization’s dominance has come to an end, and the age of Eurasia is dawning, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán declared, noting that it will not be easy for the West to come to terms with the fact that they are no longer “the most beautiful and intelligent.” For several centuries, the West has been accustomed to thinking of itself as the most beautiful, the most intelligent, the most advanced, and the wealthiest. To suddenly see and acknowledge that we are no longer the most beautiful, intelligent, advanced, and wealthy is a challenging task,” he stated.”
He stated much more, but this is the gist. He noted that Europe and Asia are essentially one land and that the future in terms of economic and political strength and development is in Eurasia. The sooner European leaders awaken to this and accept the fact, the sooner European states can reclaim their sovereignty and become a part of and benefit from the Eurasian rise in prosperity. The United States has to chart its own course in that regard. But first it must return inward instead of displaying its overt adventurism. Perhaps the Trump administration will mark the beginning of that movement. Perhaps that administration will mark the end of many things for which we have taken for granted or refused to acknowledge – NATO, Zionism, Israel, globalization, neoliberalism, empire, etc. It will not be so much that Trump brings such changes about. He is as much a product of the times as he is a man carrying a torch. Don’t expect miracles from Trump if you are a supporter. The momentum of the Washington ‘machine’ is considerable and the world has changed considerably since his first term in office. The momentum of change favors the East. Trump will face considerable challenges at home, including within his own Party. The Republican majority in the House and Senate may turn out to be illusory. Only time will tell.
In conclusion: To hear the media spin and the over-emotionalism on so many topics in social media in these days – not to mention quite a bit of ignorance – one might be given over to believing the sky is falling, that we are all doomed, or that a White Knight cometh. These next two months will present a full plate of the most intensive propaganda from all sides, to an extent we have not seen in recent times. But if we apply the principles of the Inner Warrior to every situation, those will quickly clarify. The heart and the head must match to see matters clearly, and that means being able to hold ourselves steady within our own inner light, the Light of the Soul. If there is strong emotion, there is glamour. If there are thoughts that separate us or which bind us to familiar paths, there is illusion. Only the Light of the Soul shines true, and that may lead us down paths we had not expected. In these days we are likely to see much that we had not expected. Yet, the causes have been ever-present, had we chosen to see them. Our minds must be open, yet the discriminating powers of the soul must rightly interpret what we see in our mind’s eye. Such is the battle that rages within each of us once we choose the path to liberation and enlightenment. To all who battle thus, in victory we will all stand. May your victories in these days come gracefully and quickly.
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